Rising core inflation and foggy tariff risks inject fresh uncertainty into the Federal Reserve and interest rates.

Nomura expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing forward its easing forecast, amid signs of milder U.S. inflation in July and early cracks in the labor market.

Fed-funds futures traders were pricing in a 51% likelihood on Tuesday that the central bank will cut rates in three quarter-point increments by December, up from 45% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.