When scientists spot an asteroid whose trajectory might take it close to Earth, they monitor it frequently and calculate the probability that it might collide with our planet.

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple ...

Probability is one of those things we all get wrong... deeply wrong. The good news is we're not the only ones, says John Haigh , a mathematician at the University of Sussex in Brighton, UK, and ...

Big Data predictive algorithm from Swiss financial giant UBS to determine probability that a company is a target of activist investors.

Any uncertainty in the calculation of the object’s orbit causes variations in the predicted solution. Instead of one precise orbit, the calculation usually gives scientists a cloud of its possible ...