I follow rates of change in the high-frequency economic statistics, which have kept me on the right side of the market over the past three years, as well as remaining consistent in my outlook for a ...

Focusing on rates of change is what led me to conclude three years ago that we would avoid a recession and eventually realize a soft landing for the economy. The rate of inflation was peaking and ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...