The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100% after new data showed U.S. inflation increasing at a moderate pace in July and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.

With inflation easing and the labor market cooling, the risks of keeping policy too tight are mounting. The CME Group now puts the implied odds of a September rate cut at 92.2 percent, reflecting growing expectations in the fed funds futures market that the Fed will respond to the softer data.

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, added that there’s “little evidence” tariffs are causing a meaningful rise in inflation at this point, noting that shelter and energy services like electricity and piped gas remain primary drivers.